A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
