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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.